UtahPolicy recently surveyed “a panel” of its readers after the LDS Church’s statement of support for the Utah Medical Association’s inflammatory opposition statement in an attempt to prognosticate on the question.
Not surprisingly, “Policy Insiders” differ on how they view the likely impact of announced opponents on existing public opinion.
We want to add a bit of context here, as this news and opinion outlet seems to be becoming relevant in the debate. Utah Policy may be new to most of our readers, so advocates are weighing how much credibility to give it since it gives the impression of wanting to appear objective. Still, it’s also relatively new to most of we previously non-political TRUCE volunteers as well, so just a few observations:
The site describes itself as “where political junkies get their daily fix” (which is kind of ironic in this context, but another time, lol), and it certainly appeals to those who are much more into Utah politics than the average citizen.
The article also notes, importantly, “Our ‘Political Insider’ panel is a select group of Republican and Democratic politicians, officeholders, lobbyists, and activists. This survey is NOT scientific.” The survey was also open to all UtahPolicy readers.
So with our eyebrows appropriately raised, and reading between the lines, the global takeaway seems to gravitate toward the notion that so far, while there will likely be some impact, there’s no consensus that the UMCA won’t pass as a result of events like the LDS statement of concern, and the promise of “active opposition” from people and groups like Governor Herbert, the UMA’s (out of control) Board, ever-buzzing gadfly Rep. Daw, the Eagle Forum’s Gayle Ruzicka, the Sutherland Institute and more.
Republican Insiders were more inclined than Democratic ones to predict opposition will increase, and overall, surveyed readers felt there would be some impact (by 56-44%).
Note: there was no “not sure” category, and also no way to express that “it depends on how actively opponents campaign against it.” But they did solicit comments. And the story also includes a good sized sample of these you may find of interest.
In any event, it’s 2018 and “metric analysis” is very much in vogue, so be prepared for dueling statistics, pundits and “insider” speculation to play a larger role than ever before in Utah’s history of ballot initiatives, and we’ll keep you as up to date as we can.
PS: Our own view falls into the “it depends on the campaign, but things still look positive for the UMCA” camp.
#MMJ #Polls #UTpol #UMCA #UtahNext #TRUCE